WHITE PAPER – DRAFT – Feb. 7, 2025 – WHITE PAPER – DRAFT
Leadership in the Arab world requires a delicate balance of political acumen, economic foresight, and social intelligence to navigate the region’s complexities. Unlike other parts of the world, Arab leaders must contend with tribal dynamics, religious influences, geopolitical tensions, and rapidly evolving economic landscapes. Effective governance in this region is not just about maintaining authority but about ensuring stability, fostering economic growth, securing national interests, and engaging effectively with both regional and global powers.
An Arab leader must be able to mediate internal divisions, maintain strong diplomatic relations, and implement forward-thinking policies that address the modern challenges of globalization, technological advancements, and shifting alliances. Additionally, as many Arab nations work toward economic diversification, political reforms, and security cooperation, leaders must exhibit strategic decision-making and adaptability to ensure long-term prosperity.
The following list outlines the ten most essential leadership skills an Arab leader must possess, ranked in order of their impact on governance, economic stability, national security, and diplomatic influence. Each skill is critical for strengthening political legitimacy, fostering national unity, and securing the country’s place on the global stage.
10. Technological & Innovation Leadership
Leaders must embrace digital transformation, artificial intelligence, and innovation to ensure their countries remain competitive in the global economy. The rapid advancement of technology has made digital governance and economic diversification essential for sustainable growth.
Example: The UAE, under Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, has invested heavily in AI, space exploration, and digital transformation, making it one of the most technologically advanced nations in the Arab world.
9. Legal & Constitutional Knowledge
A strong grasp of the legal system and constitutional frameworks is vital for ensuring long-term national stability, upholding the rule of law, and implementing governance reforms.
Example: The late Sultan Qaboos of Oman modernized Oman’s legal framework, ensuring peace and order for decades.
8. Communication & Public Engagement
An effective leader must be able to communicate with their people, inspire trust, and maintain a strong public image. Engaging citizens directly fosters national unity and political legitimacy.
Example: Kais Saied of Tunisia has relied on direct public engagement, using speeches and social media to address concerns and rally support.
7. Social & Cultural Leadership
Arab leaders must navigate deeply rooted cultural and religious dynamics, implementing reforms while respecting traditions.
Example: King Salman of Saudi Arabia has cautiously introduced social reforms, such as allowing women to drive and increasing entertainment options, balancing modernity with conservative values.
6. Diplomatic & Foreign Policy Skills
Managing international relations, securing alliances, and engaging in regional diplomacy are essential for national security and economic growth.
Example: Qatar’s Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani skillfully balances relations with the West, Iran, and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), maintaining Qatar’s strategic position in the region.
5. Security & Military Strategy
Given the geopolitical tensions in the Arab world, leaders must ensure national security, counter terrorism, and build strong military capabilities.
Example: Abdel Fattah el-Sisi of Egypt has relied on military-backed stability, combating extremist groups and securing the Sinai Peninsula.
4. Crisis Management & Conflict Resolution
Leaders must address internal crises such as economic downturns and protests, while also navigating external conflicts.
Example: King Abdullah II of Jordan has managed ongoing refugee crises, balancing internal stability while ensuring security amidst regional turmoil.
3. Economic Expertise & Fiscal Management
Understanding national budgets, trade policies, and economic diversification strategies is crucial, particularly in resource-dependent economies.
Example: Mohammed bin Zayed of the UAE has led economic innovations that have reduced the country’s reliance on oil, focusing on tourism, renewable energy, and technology.
2. Political Acumen & Power Management
Leaders must navigate political alliances, balance power structures, and maintain stability in often volatile environments.
Example: Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia has consolidated power within the kingdom while pushing forward his Vision 2030 economic reforms.
1. Strategic Vision & Long-Term Planning
The most crucial skill for an Arab leader is the ability to develop and execute a long-term vision for national development. A leader must anticipate future challenges, craft strategies for economic and social transformation, and ensure national prosperity.
Example: Mohammed bin Salman’s Vision 2030 is a landmark initiative aimed at transforming Saudi Arabia’s economy by reducing its reliance on oil, fostering innovation, and enhancing global investment.
Analysis of the Ranking and Leader Assessment
The ranking of Arab leaders is based on a combination of strategic vision, economic management, diplomatic influence, security capabilities, crisis response, and societal leadership. While all leaders exhibit strengths in different areas, their long-term impact depends on the sustainability of their policies, regional stability, and global economic trends. Below is an analysis of their current standing, followed by projections over the next 5 and 10 years regarding who is most likely to lead their nation toward prosperity.
Current Leadership Effectiveness
Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan (UAE) – Strongest Leader in Economic and Diplomatic Growth
The UAE has successfully diversified its economy beyond oil, with non-oil GDP contributing around 71% to the economy as of 2023 (World Bank).
Mohammed bin Zayed has positioned the UAE as a global trade, finance, and technology hub.
The UAE’s GDP growth in 2023 was 3.5%, with a projected increase to 4% by 2025 (IMF).
His diplomatic efforts have also stabilized relations with Israel and Iran, strengthening regional security.
Mohammed bin Salman (Saudi Arabia) – Architect of a New Economic Future
Vision 2030 is a transformative plan, reducing oil dependency (oil contributes 40% to GDP in 2024, down from 80% in 2016).
Saudi Arabia’s foreign reserves remain strong at $437 billion (Saudi Central Bank, 2023).
Major infrastructure projects, such as NEOM ($500 billion investment), could reshape the kingdom’s economic landscape over the next decade.
Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani (Qatar) – The Diplomatic Balancer
Qatar’s GDP per capita remains one of the highest in the world ($88,000 in 2024, IMF) due to strategic LNG exports.
Strong international positioning post-GCC crisis, playing a crucial role in mediating Middle East conflicts.
Investment in global assets and sports diplomacy (FIFA 2022, etc.) solidifies Qatar’s long-term soft power.
King Abdullah II (Jordan) – Stability Amidst Crisis
Jordan remains stable despite hosting over 3 million refugees (UNHCR, 2023).
Annual economic growth hovers around 2.5%, hindered by limited resources but boosted by regional partnerships.
Strong security cooperation with the U.S. and regional allies ensures Jordan’s continued stability.
Abdel Fattah el-Sisi (Egypt) – Security First, Economy Struggles
Egypt’s economy faces 40% inflation (2023) and a growing debt burden ($164 billion external debt, IMF).
Military-backed stability ensures internal security, but economic pressures may limit long-term success.
Infrastructure projects like the Suez Canal expansion could boost trade revenues by 2030.
Haitham bin Tariq (Oman) – Neutrality and Gradual Economic Reforms
Oman’s economy remains highly reliant on hydrocarbons (oil & gas contribute 60% of GDP).
Sultan Haitham is modernizing economic policies, increasing investment in renewable energy.
Oman’s debt-to-GDP ratio has improved, dropping from 80% in 2020 to 50% in 2023 (Moody’s).
Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa (Bahrain) – Facing Economic Challenges
Bahrain faces fiscal challenges, with a public debt of over 100% of GDP (2023).
Economic reforms are progressing, but dependence on Saudi financial support limits long-term sovereignty.
Najib Mikati (Lebanon) – Economic Collapse Continues
Lebanon’s economy has contracted by 60% since 2019 (World Bank).
Inflation exceeds 140%, with no clear economic recovery plan.
Political instability and corruption hinder reforms.
Kais Saied (Tunisia) – Political Instability Overshadowing Progress
GDP growth remains below 2%, with unemployment exceeding 15%.
Political decisions, including dissolving parliament, have reduced investor confidence.
Tunisia risks further economic isolation if democratic institutions erode.
Ismaïl Omar Guelleh (Djibouti) – Small but Strategic Player
Djibouti’s GDP growth is steady at 6%, driven by Chinese infrastructure projects.
Debt to China remains a concern, exceeding 70% of GDP (IMF).
Port investments make Djibouti a rising logistics hub.
Projections for the Next 5 and 10 Years
5-Year Projections (2025-2030)
UAE – Strongest economic and diplomatic position, continued growth in AI, space, and finance.
Saudi Arabia – Vision 2030 will show more economic gains; energy transition will accelerate.
Qatar – LNG dominance will ensure economic strength, but regional tensions could be a challenge.
Jordan – Stability remains, with moderate economic growth, relying on foreign aid.
Egypt – Economic struggles persist, but security remains intact.
Oman – Economic diversification progresses slowly, but neutrality remains an asset.
Bahrain – Financial challenges could worsen without more reforms.
Tunisia – Political turmoil might escalate, further weakening the economy.
Lebanon – Economic collapse deepens without political reform.
Djibouti – Growth continues but dependency on China is risky.
10-Year Projections (2030-2035)
Saudi Arabia – If Vision 2030 succeeds, Saudi Arabia could surpass the UAE in economic power.
UAE – Will maintain leadership in finance and innovation, but may face increased regional competition.
Qatar – LNG will remain an asset, but diversification efforts will determine long-term sustainability.
Jordan – Stability ensures slow but steady economic improvement.
Egypt – Future depends on debt management and economic reforms.
Oman – Will emerge as a regional renewable energy leader.
Bahrain – May struggle without stronger fiscal reforms.
Tunisia – Could face economic collapse if political instability continues.
Lebanon – A failed state scenario is possible without drastic reforms.
Djibouti – Could become a key African logistics hub, but risks debt distress.
Who Will Do Best for Their People?
UAE and Saudi Arabia are best positioned to improve living standards due to strong economic strategies.
Qatar and Jordan will maintain stability but with moderate growth.
Egypt and Oman have potential but must navigate economic challenges.
Lebanon and Tunisia face serious risks; without reforms, living conditions will deteriorate.
Djibouti has promise but remains dependent on China.
Why This List Matters
This ranking provides insight into which leaders are most capable of driving progress, stabilizing conflict-prone regions, and positioning their nations for long-term success. In a world where economic power is shifting, security threats are evolving, and technological innovation is accelerating, the ability of Arab leaders to adapt and lead will determine whether their nations rise or fall in the next decade.
Who Will Shape the Future?
Mohammed bin Zayed (UAE) and Mohammed bin Salman (Saudi Arabia) stand as the most influential leaders, spearheading economic transformation, technological innovation, and geopolitical influence. Their ability to diversify their economies and strengthen global partnerships will define the Middle East’s future economic and political landscape.
Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani (Qatar) and King Abdullah II (Jordan) will maintain stability, leveraging diplomacy and strategic economic management to ensure their nations remain secure and relevant.
Egypt, Oman, and Bahrain face turning points—without significant economic reforms, they risk stagnation, but with the right policies, they could experience substantial growth.
Tunisia and Lebanon are at a crisis point. If urgent action is not taken, they risk long-term economic collapse, political instability, and declining living standards for their people.
Who Is Best Positioned for Long-Term Success
Mohammed bin Zayed (UAE) and Mohammed bin Salman (Saudi Arabia) are expected to lead the region in economic transformation. The UAE’s diversified economy and Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 reforms place them at the forefront of modernization, with significant investments in technology, infrastructure, and energy diversification.
Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani (Qatar) will continue leveraging Qatar’s LNG dominance to ensure sustained economic strength while maintaining diplomatic balance.
Who Will Provide Stable but Moderate Growth
King Abdullah II (Jordan) will maintain regional stability with slow but steady economic improvements. His strong international partnerships will ensure Jordan remains secure despite economic limitations.
Haitham bin Tariq (Oman) is gradually modernizing Oman’s economy, with a long-term shift toward renewable energy and economic diversification.
Who Is Facing Economic and Political Challenges
Abdel Fattah el-Sisi (Egypt) must implement significant reforms to manage rising debt and inflation while maintaining security. His leadership will be tested by economic hardships over the next decade.
Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa (Bahrain) faces financial struggles and will require external support to stabilize Bahrain’s economy.
Which Regime Has A High Risk of Decline
Kais Saied (Tunisia) and Najib Mikati (Lebanon) face severe economic and political crises. Without urgent reforms, Tunisia risks economic stagnation, and Lebanon could face further collapse, worsening living conditions for their citizens.
Which Regime Is Emerging, But Vulnerable
Ismaïl Omar Guelleh (Djibouti) is overseeing steady economic growth, but the country remains heavily dependent on Chinese investment, which poses long-term risks.
Projections for 2030 and Beyond
The Gulf states (UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar) will emerge as the economic powerhouses of the Arab world, driving regional investment, energy diversification, and digital transformation.
Jordan and Oman will sustain stability but will require international partnerships to maintain growth.
Egypt, Tunisia, and Lebanon must make drastic reforms or face prolonged economic hardship, potentially leading to political unrest.
Djibouti will continue to expand its strategic role in African trade but remains vulnerable to external economic pressures.
The Critical Question: Who Will Truly Lead Their People?
Leadership is ultimately measured by how well a nation thrives under its ruler. The best leaders will be those who can secure a future of economic prosperity, social stability, and geopolitical strength. This ranking is a roadmap for analyzing who will succeed, who will struggle, and who must act urgently to avoid decline. In a rapidly changing world, the next decade will determine whether these leaders elevate their nations or watch them fall behind.
Potential Regime Changes in the Arab World: Risks, Opposition, and Future Leadership
While many Arab governments maintain strong centralized control, opposition movements exist in nearly every country. Some regimes face significant threats of political upheaval due to economic crises, public dissatisfaction, or regional instability. Below is an analysis of the most vulnerable governments, the nature of their opposition, and potential leaders or movements that could drive change over the next 5 to 10 years.
1. Lebanon – High Risk of Political Collapse
Current Leader: Najib Mikati (Prime Minister)
Main Opposition: Various political factions, including Hezbollah, reformist parties, and independent protest movements.
Why It’s at Risk: Lebanon is suffering from one of the worst economic crises in modern history, with inflation surpassing 200% in 2023, a collapsing currency, and failing public institutions. Political deadlock has left the government incapable of enacting reforms.
Potential Change Agents: If elections or external pressures force a shift, independent reformist leaders such as Nawaf Salam (a respected judge and diplomat) could emerge as a unifying figure. Alternatively, Hezbollah’s continued influence may push Lebanon further towards an Iranian-backed governance model.
2. Tunisia – Moderate to High Risk of Political Upheaval
Current Leader: Kais Saied (President)
Main Opposition: The National Salvation Front (a coalition of opposition groups), Ennahda (moderate Islamist party), and pro-democracy activists.
Why It’s at Risk: Since Saied’s power grab in 2021, Tunisia has seen increasing authoritarianism, a deteriorating economy, and growing public protests. Unemployment exceeds 15%, and IMF-backed economic reforms are unpopular.
Potential Change Agents: If Saied faces growing domestic and international pressure, figures like Ahmed Nejib Chebbi (opposition coalition leader) or youth-driven grassroots movements could spearhead a democratic resurgence.
3. Egypt – Moderate Risk of Political Tension
Current Leader: Abdel Fattah el-Sisi (President)
Main Opposition: Secular activists, the Muslim Brotherhood (despite crackdowns), and economic reform advocates.
Why It’s at Risk: Egypt’s heavy reliance on IMF loans and a $165 billion debt crisis put immense pressure on Sisi’s administration. Military-backed rule has stifled dissent, but continued economic struggles may trigger protests reminiscent of the 2011 Arab Spring.
Potential Change Agents: While a full regime change is unlikely, military elites dissatisfied with Sisi’s governance could replace him with a more reform-minded general, such as Mahmoud Hegazy (former military chief of staff).
4. Jordan – Low to Moderate Risk of Political Challenges
Current Leader: King Abdullah II
Main Opposition: Islamist opposition (Muslim Brotherhood), tribal factions, and pro-democracy reformists.
Why It’s at Risk: While Jordan remains stable under monarchical rule, economic stagnation and dissatisfaction with governance could lead to gradual political reform or a shift in leadership style. Protests over fuel prices in 2022-2023 highlighted growing frustrations.
Potential Change Agents: The monarchy is unlikely to collapse, but figures like Crown Prince Hussein could represent a younger, reformist leadership transition within the royal family.
5. Bahrain – Low to Moderate Risk of Internal Dissent
Current Leader: Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa (Crown Prince and PM)
Main Opposition: Shiite-majority opposition groups, particularly Al-Wefaq (banned political society).
Why It’s at Risk: The ruling Sunni monarchy has faced persistent tensions with its Shiite-majority population. While Saudi support stabilizes the regime, ongoing repression fuels underground opposition.
Potential Change Agents: If political repression eases, figures like Ali Salman (opposition leader currently imprisoned) could play a role in negotiations for reforms.
Who Will Lead Change in the Next 5-10 Years?
Most Likely to Face Leadership Challenges: Lebanon, Tunisia, Egypt
Most Likely to Experience Gradual Reform: Jordan, Bahrain
Most Secure Regimes (Least Likely to Change): UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman
While some governments will remain stable due to strong military backing and economic resilience, others face mounting challenges that could lead to major leadership shifts. Tunisia and Lebanon are at the highest risk of government collapse, while Egypt’s economic woes may spur significant unrest. Over the next decade, those leaders who fail to adapt to their people’s demands—especially in crisis-stricken nations—may find themselves replaced by reformists, opposition coalitions, or even military-backed successors.
Forces That Could Drive Regime Change in the Arab World
Regime change in the Arab world is typically driven by a combination of internal and external pressures. These can range from economic collapse to political uprisings and foreign intervention. Below is an analysis of the key factors that could force a change in leadership in the most vulnerable countries over the next 5 to 10 years.
1. Economic Collapse & Debt Crisis
Countries at Risk: Lebanon, Tunisia, Egypt
Severe economic distress is one of the most powerful triggers of political upheaval. When a government cannot meet basic needs—such as providing food, healthcare, and jobs—it loses legitimacy, leading to mass protests or even revolution.
Lebanon: With inflation over 200% and 80% of the population living in poverty, public anger is already at a breaking point. A full banking system collapse or a failure to secure foreign aid could trigger large-scale unrest, possibly forcing the government to resign.
Tunisia: The country faces 15%+ unemployment and mounting debt. The IMF’s demand for austerity measures, including subsidy cuts, could push the middle class into rebellion.
Egypt: With $165 billion in debt, rising food prices, and a declining currency, Egypt risks economic turmoil. If the government fails to manage its obligations, protests could spiral into a larger movement demanding regime change.
2. Mass Protests and Civil Unrest
Countries at Risk: Tunisia, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon
Arab Spring-style mass demonstrations have historically forced leaders out of power. If economic hardship worsens or corruption scandals erupt, large-scale movements could emerge.
Tunisia: Since Kais Saied’s power grab, protests have grown. If opposition coalitions unite, they could push for new elections or even demand his resignation.
Egypt: If food shortages worsen, the military might intervene and replace Sisi with another leader to maintain stability.
Jordan: While the monarchy is strong, persistent youth unemployment and growing discontent with corruption could push the king to make concessions or hand over more power to elected officials.
3. Military Coup or Internal Power Struggle
Countries at Risk: Egypt, Bahrain, Sudan, possibly Saudi Arabia
When a government loses support from its military and intelligence services, a coup becomes a possibility.
Egypt: If Sisi’s economic policies fail, elements within the military elite may replace him with a more capable leader, as happened with Mubarak in 2011.
Bahrain: The ruling Sunni monarchy relies heavily on the military and Saudi support. If fractures emerge within the ruling family or external pressures weaken Saudi influence, a coup could become possible.
Saudi Arabia: While unlikely, internal power struggles within the royal family could challenge Mohammed bin Salman if opposition to his aggressive reforms grows.
4. Foreign Intervention or Regional Conflicts
Countries at Risk: Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, Iraq
External powers such as Iran, the U.S., Turkey, and Saudi Arabia have historically influenced leadership changes in the region.
Lebanon: If Hezbollah grows too powerful or clashes with Israel escalate, international intervention could reshape the government.
Syria: While Assad has survived civil war, continued instability could lead to a foreign-backed regime change, especially if Russia or Iran shifts its support.
Yemen: A Saudi-Iran proxy conflict continues to define Yemeni politics. A negotiated peace deal could install a new coalition government, replacing the current fractured leadership.
5. Leadership Death or Succession Crisis
Countries at Risk: Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Algeria, Oman
Monarchies in the Arab world rely on strong hereditary rule. If a ruler dies or is incapacitated, a succession battle could create instability.
Saudi Arabia: If King Salman (currently in poor health) dies, Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) is set to rule. However, any internal resistance from the royal family could challenge his leadership.
Jordan: While King Abdullah II remains popular, instability during a transition to Crown Prince Hussein could allow opposition groups to gain strength.
6. Islamist Resurgence or Political Violence
Countries at Risk: Egypt, Tunisia, Jordan, Bahrain
Islamist groups like the Muslim Brotherhood and Salafi movements have historically challenged Arab regimes. If secular governments fail to deliver economic stability, religious groups may rise as alternative leadership options.
Egypt: The Brotherhood remains active despite crackdowns. If public discontent grows, a more moderate Islamist leader could emerge.
Tunisia: The Ennahda party (Islamist-leaning) is already gaining ground as Saied’s governance struggles.
Jordan: While the monarchy is stable, underground Islamist movements could capitalize on economic hardship to push for greater influence.
How At-Risk Regimes Can Overcome Potential Change
Regimes facing political and economic instability can take proactive measures to avoid collapse or forced leadership change. The solutions vary depending on whether the risk is due to economic failure, public dissatisfaction, opposition strength, or foreign influence. Below is a detailed strategy for each regime based on its level of risk.
High-Risk Regimes (Change Possible Within 5 Years)
1. Lebanon – Economic Collapse + Political Paralysis
Key Problems:
Severe economic crisis (200% inflation, 80% poverty rate)
Government deadlock preventing reforms
Corruption erodes public trust
Solutions to Avoid Collapse:
Urgent Banking & Financial Reform: Restore access to deposits, stabilize the Lebanese pound, and secure IMF aid without excessive austerity.
Anti-Corruption Crackdown: Enforce real accountability in government and banking sectors to restore legitimacy.
Electoral & Political Restructuring: Shift away from sectarian politics by implementing technocratic leadership or empowering reformist parties.
Stronger Social Safety Nets: Introduce food subsidies and employment programs to reduce public suffering and prevent mass protests.
Chance of Stability: 30% – Without fast action, Lebanon faces near-certain leadership turnover.
2. Tunisia – Kais Saied Faces Rising Opposition & Economic Failure
Key Problems:
Rising youth unemployment (over 35%)
Autocratic power grabs reduce investor confidence
Weak relations with the IMF and EU for financial aid
Solutions to Avoid Collapse:
Restoring Democratic Credibility: Reverse undemocratic decrees, hold free elections, and re-engage with opposition parties to regain public trust.
Economic Revitalization: Ease restrictions on private sector growth, encourage foreign direct investment (FDI), and modernize Tunisia’s tourism sector.
IMF & EU Negotiations: Secure conditional aid that focuses on long-term job creation, not just debt relief.
Youth Employment Initiatives: Offer targeted programs in tech, renewable energy, and agriculture to address the employment crisis.
Chance of Stability: 40% – Kais Saied must either reform or step down to prevent long-term instability.
3. Egypt – Economic Crisis & Military Tensions
Key Problems:
$165 billion in debt, food price inflation, and currency devaluation
Authoritarian governance stifling opposition
Growing risk of military coup if Sisi fails economically
Solutions to Avoid Collapse:
Debt Restructuring & Economic Reform: Cut military control over the economy, privatize inefficient sectors, and attract foreign investment.
Reduce Military Dependence: Appoint more civilian technocrats to key ministries to prevent potential coup scenarios.
Strengthen Regional Alliances: Deepen ties with the Gulf states (UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar) for financial support without excessive dependency.
Food & Energy Security Plan: Reduce wheat dependency on Russia/Ukraine by expanding domestic production and trade deals with Africa.
Chance of Stability: 50% – Sisi can avoid military intervention if economic reforms succeed in 3-5 years.
Moderate-Risk Regimes (Change Likely Within 10 Years)
4. Jordan – Monarchy Faces Reform Pressures
Key Problems:
High youth unemployment (48%)
Corruption scandals reduce monarchy’s credibility
Increasing public frustration with lack of democratic progress
Solutions to Avoid Collapse:
Monarch-Led Reforms: King Abdullah II should allow gradual democratic transitions, such as strengthening parliamentary power and anti-corruption oversight.
Economic Diversification: Reduce reliance on tourism by investing in tech, pharmaceuticals, and regional trade partnerships.
Job Creation for Youth: Offer public-private partnerships in sectors like renewable energy and AI development to keep young professionals in Jordan.
Chance of Stability: 65% – Jordan will likely evolve through gradual reform rather than collapse.
5. Bahrain – Shiite Opposition Remains Strong
Key Problems:
Sunni-minority monarchy ruling a Shiite-majority population
Heavy dependence on Saudi Arabia’s support
Risk of sectarian conflict or Iran-backed movements
Solutions to Avoid Collapse:
Inclusive Political Representation: The ruling family should integrate Shiite leaders into the government to reduce sectarian tensions.
Reduce Saudi Dependence: Build a stronger independent economy through oil diversification and tech investments.
Human Rights & Press Freedoms: Improve international credibility by gradually lifting censorship laws and political restrictions.
Chance of Stability: 60% – If reforms are delayed, Shiite opposition could escalate into a major crisis.
6. Saudi Arabia – MBS Faces Internal Royal Dissent
Key Problems:
Opposition from royal family elites unhappy with reforms
Reliance on oil revenue (70% of budget) while oil demand is declining
Risk of over-centralization of power under MBS
Solutions to Avoid Collapse:
Political Power Balancing: MBS should distribute more decision-making authority to trusted technocrats and reformist royal figures.
Faster Economic Diversification: Expand Vision 2030 by accelerating tech and entertainment industries.
Social Stability Measures: Gradually expand freedoms without alienating conservatives (e.g., controlled liberalization of laws on women and personal freedoms).
Chance of Stability: 75% – Saudi Arabia is well-positioned for stability if economic diversification succeeds.
Low-Risk Regimes (Stable for the Next Decade)
UAE, Qatar, Oman, Morocco
Why They Are Stable:
Strong economies with diversified revenue sources
Effective monarchical governance with little opposition
Low risk of social unrest due to high living standards
To Maintain Stability:
Continue economic innovation and global partnerships
Invest in education & technology to sustain long-term growth
Strengthen diplomatic relations to remain politically insulated
Chance of Stability: 85-95% – These nations will remain stable if they keep adapting to global economic trends.
Final Analysis: Who Can Prevent Regime Change?
Most Vulnerable (Needs Urgent Action):
Lebanon – Only radical financial reform can prevent collapse.
Tunisia – Political instability must be resolved within 5 years.
Egypt – Economic stability is key to avoiding military intervention.
Moderate Risk (Reform Is Necessary for Long-Term Stability):
Jordan – Needs job creation and gradual political reform.
Bahrain – Must integrate Shiite opposition into governance.
Saudi Arabia – Must ensure MBS balances power and continues economic transformation.
Likely to Remain Stable: UAE, Qatar, Oman, Morocco – If they continue economic diversification and global engagement, they will maintain long-term stability.
By implementing bold economic, political, and social reforms, at-risk regimes can delay or even prevent regime change. However, failure to act within the next decade could lead to major shifts in Arab leadership.
Who Will Lead the Next Wave of Change?
Regime change in the Arab world will be driven by economic failure, public protests, military coups, and foreign intervention. The next five years will be crucial for countries like Lebanon, Tunisia, and Egypt, where instability is highest. Over the next decade, shifts in leadership are possible in Jordan and Bahrain, while Saudi Arabia could see internal power struggles.
The leaders who will survive and thrive are those who can adapt, implement economic reforms, and balance security with public demands. Those who fail to do so will likely be replaced—whether through democratic transitions, military coups, or popular uprisings.
Conclusion: The Future of Arab Leadership and Its Global Significance
The ranking of Arab leaders is not merely an evaluation—it serves as a strategic lens through which we can assess the future of the Arab world and its impact on global politics, economics, and security. Leadership in the region is about more than domestic governance; it directly influences energy markets, international diplomacy, and regional stability. As the global economy shifts, technological advancements accelerate, and geopolitical tensions evolve, the ability of these leaders to navigate challenges will determine the prosperity of their nations and the broader trajectory of the Middle East.
To ensure long-term success, Arab leaders must prioritize economic sustainability, social stability, and forward-thinking governance. Those who focus on diversification, infrastructure, and human capital development will be the ones who best serve their people. Mohammed bin Zayed (UAE) and Mohammed bin Salman (Saudi Arabia) stand out as the most capable of driving prosperity, with bold economic transformations, investments in technology, and proactive international engagement. Their policies position their nations as future powerhouses in a post-oil world. Meanwhile, leaders in Lebanon and Tunisia face urgent crises—without decisive reforms, economic mismanagement and political instability could lead to deeper national decline, further deteriorating the standard of living for their citizens.
The rankings provide a critical roadmap for understanding who is leading effectively and who risks falling behind. Over the next decade, the divide between thriving and struggling nations will widen, with the most visionary leaders securing stability and growth while weaker governance models lead to stagnation or collapse. As Arab nations redefine their role on the world stage, their leadership decisions today will determine whether they emerge as global players—or fade into economic and political obscurity.